When Theodore Roosevelt encouraged policymakers to “speak softly and carry a big stick,” clearly, his target audience was not central bankers. Chairman Powell’s speech was significant because its message was precisely counter to what markets started to price in since mid-June.
Measures of inflation breadth (how many items are seeing big jumps in prices) and stickiness (those items that tend to see slower price changes) remain elevated. This makes the Fed’s job difficult, as it points to a long journey to get back towards 2%.
Recession alarm bells have been ringing louder after the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter. 2022 stands as the worst year on record for bonds leading some investors to pile into municipal debt because it is considered safe.
Friday’s red-hot inflation print dashed what, in our opinion, were misplaced hopes for an inflation peak and a dovish pivot. The inflation data solidified that we are likely in for a cruel summer of trading in equities, with the potential for further downside for indices and the likelihood of continued elevated volatility.
Periods of market volatility always raise two questions: how much further down do we have to go and what actions should we take in response? Unfortunately, the former cannot be known with certainty and is outside of our control; however, the latter is within our control.
Municipal bonds, the mainstay fixed income security for retail and ultra high net worth investors, started 2022 as “expensive” when measured as a percentage of Treasuries. That changed in a seeming blink of an eye.