Fed rate cuts appear to be on hold. Global government bond markets are in retreat. And stocks have been jittery in the opening days of 2025. The trend for each of these hinges, to varying extents, on whether the U.S. job creating machine can continue humming in 2025. The December U.S. employment report gave us hope that it can.
The investing world has awoken from a two-week holiday slumber, and a new year has begun. 2025 starts, as most years do, with more questions than answers. But the outcome for the global economy and financial markets seems unusually uncertain to us. High valuations and market concentration combined with softening economic data and rising policy uncertainty mean the picture is murky, at best.
Currently, there is a splintering in financial markets and economic data that is likely to prove temporary, but as this splintering mends, markets could be singing Gin Blossoms’ “Follow You Down” along the way.
But oh, it's heavenNowadays “Nowadays”, Roxie Hart, Chicago the Musical It’s good, isn’t it? “Let me start by saying that we think the economy is in a really good place, and we think policy is in a really good place.” Grand, isn't it? “The economy is strong overall...
In the grand ranking of defeated and desperate pleas for love and acceptance, Fräulein Sally Bowles’ haunting “Maybe This Time” at the end of the first act of Cabaret takes the cake. In a close second comes Value stocks in 2024. Defeated, desperate, unloved, unaccepted, the Value factor/style might as well apply to jobs in the chorus line at the Kit Kat Club.
Our last Weekly Edge addressed the potential that we could see improving economic data in the wake of the U.S. election, reflected by more optimistic consumer and business survey responses. Since then, we’ve seen that effect materialize in some places (consumer expectations) but not others (services business sentiment).
Those of us raised on science fiction movies know the difference between the “hard” and “soft” parts of the genre. Soft sci-fi films, like Jurassic Park or Star Wars, prioritize human emotion over plausibility, which is often what makes them crowd-pleasers. But a...
Though you swear that you are trueI'd still pick my friends over you “My Friends Over You”, New Found Glory Sporting Vans sneakers, hair gel, cargo shorts, and a whole lot of teenage angst (all things that could be procured at suburban mall Hot Topic), New Found Glory...
The price action across equities, fixed income, and currency markets had many investors “remembering the first time” that Trump was elected in 2016, with the assumption that a similar playbook can be applied to today’s market.
“Everyone’s entitled to one good scare.” – Rounding up the Latest Economic News It’s officially November. The trick-or-treating is over, and the days of noshing on leftover candy have begun. As investors, the past several weeks made us feel a bit like a group of...